Evidence / Data kit

Data kit, live operational scope

Reproducibility artefacts for Invarians' May 2026 live scope. Ethereum and Polygon L1 regimes, Arbitrum / Base / Optimism L2 regimes, Chainlink CCIP and Circle CCTP variable-latency bridge surfaces. Each folder is self-contained.

Scope 1 · Live

Ethereum L1 regime

BigQuery public dataset, backtest 2020 to 2024, TPR 100 percent on 4 canonical events, FPR 1.23 percent.

Scope 2 · Live

Polygon L1 regime

Chain backtest certified MEDIUM at Phi 720. Live in the stress-events detector since 2026-05-05 (composite L1×L1 ETH×POL active).

Scope 3 · Phase Preliminary

Variable-latency bridges · CCIP / CCTP

CCTP routes preliminary BS1 / BS2 calibration on Circle attestation API (P97/14d, since 2026-05-04, confidence LOW). CCIP lanes raw observability, classification deferred. Full reproduction kit publishes at confidence HIGH (~2026-06-03).

Canonical methodology, scripts and archive live at github.com/agentnorthstar/calibration. This Data kit mirrors only the artefacts needed for the live operational scope shown on evidence.invarians.com. Each folder holds a README, the extraction source (SQL or schema), and the expected output to confront to a local reproduction.